Posts Tagged ‘Labour economics’

Consumer confidence up in February

San Francisco Chronicle
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index currently stands at 70.8, up from a revised 61.5 in January, helped by consumers’ improving assessment of the job market.
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/02/28/national/a070443S13.DTL

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Consumer confidence improves in December

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved to 64.5 (1985=100) in December, up from 55.2 in November. The Present Situation Index increased to 46.7 from 38.3, and the Expectations Index rose to 76.4 from 66.4.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in December. Those stating business conditions are “good” increased to 16.6 percent from 13.9 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” declined to 33.9 percent from 38.0 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the job market also was more positive. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased to 6.7 percent from 5.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 41.8 percent from 43 percent.

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Consumer confidence improves in July

CHICAGO - MAY 26:  A shopper transports his pu...

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June, slightly improved in July.  The Index now stands at 59.5 (1985=100), up from 57.6 in June. The Present Situation Index decreased to 35.7 from 36.6. The Expectations Index rose to 75.4 from 71.6 last month.
“Consumer confidence posted a modest gain in July, the result of an improvement in consumers’ short-term outlook,” said Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center.  “Consumers’ appraisal of current business and employment conditions, however, was less favorable as concerns about the labor market continue to weigh on consumers’ attitudes. Overall, consumers remain apprehensive about the future, but some of the concern expressed last month has abated.”
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Some Small Glimmers of Optimism by Americans on the Economy

By Harris Interactive
Published: Tuesday, Nov. 30, 2010 – 3:13 am

NEW YORK, Nov. 30, 2010 — /PRNewswire/ — The latest Harris Poll on the economy finds some small glimmers of optimism on the overall economy; less on employment. Three in ten Americans (31%) give President Obama positive ratings on his handling of the economy while 69% give him negative ratings. Last month, one-quarter of U.S. adults (27%) gave the President positive marks while 73% gave him negative ratings on the economy.

(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20100517/NY06256LOGO )

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,151 adults surveyed online between November 8 and 15, 2010 by Harris Interactive.

Other interesting findings include:

  • Looking ahead to the coming year, one-third of Americans (34%) expect the economy to improve while 41% say it will stay the same and one-quarter (25%) believe it will get worse. In October, three in ten U.S. adults both believed the economy would improve in the coming year (30%) and get worse (30%) while four in ten (40%) thought it would stay the same;
  • When it comes to the state of the job market, just one in ten Americans (11%) believe the job market in their region of the country is good while 23% say it is neither good nor bad and two-thirds (66%) believe it is bad. Last month, 13% of U.S. adults thought the job market was good while 66% thought it was bad;
  • Different regions of the country have slightly different views on the job market. Things seem “best” in the South where 14% say the job market is good and 62% believe it is bad. In the Midwest, 12% say it is good, but 70% believe the job market is bad;
  • There is a sense of optimism looking forward for the job market as three in ten (30%) believe the job market will be better over the next six months, up from 23% who said this in October. Half of Americans (50%) say the job market will stay the same and 21% believe it will get worse over the next six months;
  • One in ten Americans (10%) believe the job market has already started growing, up from 7% who said this in October, while 11% say it will start growing in the next 6 months. One in five U.S. adults (22%) believe the job market will start growing between 6 and 12 months from now but two in five (41%) say it will not be for another year or longer; and,
  • One question is if the government even has the power to create jobs—almost two-thirds of Americans (65%) say it does while one-quarter (27%) disagrees. Democrats are more likely than both Independents and Republicans to agree that the government has the power to create jobs (77% vs. 62% and 52%).

 

So What?

While the signs of optimism are slight, they are detectable when Americans discuss the economy. Some of this may be due to the general sense of optimism many have during the holiday season, or possibly due to the hope that the results of the recent election will produce the change that the public demands. Regardless of the reason, the fact is the optimism will not last if there is nothing to sustain it. President Obama and the new Republican leaders in the House of Representatives will need to work together to not only show people they can, but also to produce results. Otherwise, the pessimism will definitely return.

TABLE 1

PRESIDENT OBAMA’S JOB RATING ON THE ECONOMY – TREND

“Now, turning to something different, how would you rate the overall job that President Barack Obama is doing on the economy?”

Base: All adults

   
  2009  
March April May June Aug Sept Nov Dec  
% % % % % % % %  
POSITIVE (NET) 47 49 46 43 39 40 34 36  
     Excellent 13 13 10 3 9 7 6 6  
     Pretty good 34 36 36 34 31 33 27 30  
NEGATIVE (NET) 53 51 54 57 61 60 66 64  
     Only fair 30 27 30 27 25 27 30 30  
     Poor 23 24 24 30 36 33 37 34  
   
                 
   
  2010  
Jan March April May June Aug Sept Oct Nov  
% % % % % % % % %  
POSITIVE (NET) 31 32 33 36 32 32 29 27 31  
     Excellent 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 5 5  
     Pretty good 25 27 27 30 27 26 24 22 26  
NEGATIVE (NET) 69 68 67 64 68 68 71 73 69  
     Only fair 31 30 31 29 32 29 31 33 30  
     Poor 39 37 36 34 37 39 40 39 39  
   
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.  
                   

 

TABLE 2

EXPECTATIONS FOR THE ECONOMY IN THE COMING YEAR – TREND

“In the coming year, do you expect the economy to…?”

Base: All adults

   
  2009 2010  
April May Aug Sept Oct May June Aug Sept Oct Nov  
% % % % % % % % % % %  
Improve 39 38 46 40 34 38 30 29 28 30 34  
Stay the same 35 35 32 36 37 34 42 39 40 40 41  
Get worse 26 27 22 24 29 28 28 32 32 30 25  
   
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding  
                       

 

TABLE 3

RATING OF CURRENT JOB MARKET – TREND

“How would you rate the current job market of your region of the nation?”

Base:  All adults

   
  2008 2009  
June July Jan April June Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec  
% % % % % % % % % %  
GOOD (NET) 28 30 6 12 9 8 10 10 8 9  
Neither good nor bad 18 19 18 20 19 21 22 20 18 19  
BAD (NET) 53 51 76 68 72 71 68 70 73 72  
   
                     
   
  2010  
Jan Mar. April May June Aug Sept Oct Nov  
% % % % % % % % %  
GOOD (NET) 10 8 10 12 10 12 10 13 11  
Neither good nor bad 20 18 21 20 25 22 21 21 23  
BAD (NET) 70 73 70 68 66 66 69 66 66  
   
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding  
                   

 

TABLE 4

 RATING OF CURRENT JOB MARKET IN YOUR REGION – BY REGION

“How would you rate the current job market of your region of the nation?”

Base:  All adults

   
  Total Region  
East Midwest South West  
% % % % %  
GOOD (NET) 11 10 12 14 8  
 Very good 1 1 * 1 1  
 Somewhat good 10 9 12 13 6  
Neither good nor bad 23 23 18 23 25  
BAD (NET) 66 67 70 62 68  
 Somewhat bad 38 40 40 40 32  
 Very bad 28 27 29 23 35  
   
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%  
           

 

TABLE 5

EXPECTATIONS FOR JOB MARKET IN SIX MONTHS – TREND

“How do you think that the job market in your region of the nation will change over the next 6 months?”

Base:  All adults

   
  Jan. 2009 April 2009 June 2009 August 2009 June 2010 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010  
% % % % % % % % %  
BETTER (NET) 15 23 21 28 26 23 21 23 30  
 Will be much better 1 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 2  
 Will be somewhat better 14 20 19 26 25 21 19 20 28  
Will remain the same 36 42 47 47 53 49 53 53 50  
WORSE (NET) 49 36 32 25 21 27 26 24 21  
 Will be somewhat worse 36 29 24 19 15 22 20 18 15  
 Will be much worse 14 7 8 6 6 5 6 6 6  
   
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding;  
                   

 

TABLE 6

WHEN WILL JOB MARKET IMPROVE – TREND

“When do you believe the job market will start to improve?”

Base:  All adults

   
  Dec 2009 Jan 2010 March 2010 April 2010 June 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010  
% % % % % % %  
Already has started growing 5 7 7 10 8 7 10  
WITHIN NEXT SIX MONTHS (NET) 16 14 13 12 11 12 11  
 Between now and 3 months from now 4 5 4 4 3 3 4  
 Between 3 and 6 months from now 12 9 9 8 9 9 7  
Between 6 and 12 months from now 24 24 21 21 21 22 22  
Not for another year or longer 37 39 41 38 40 43 41  
Not at all sure 18 16 19 20 20 16 15  
   
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding  
               

 

TABLE 7

CAN GOVERNMENT CREATE JOBS?

“Do you agree or disagree that the government has the power to create jobs?”

Base:  All adults

   
    Generation Political Party  
Echo Boomers (18-33) Gen X (34-45) Baby Boomers (46-64) Matures (65+) Rep. Dem. Ind.  
% % % % % % % %  
AGREE (NET) 65 71 67 62 58 52 77 62  
 Strongly agree 22 27 22 19 17 15 28 20  
 Somewhat agree 43 44 45 42 41 37 49 42  
DISAGREE (NET) 27 20 27 32 31 40 16 32  
 Somewhat disagree 14 13 16 14 14 17 10 19  
 Strongly disagree 13 7 11 18 18 23 6 14  
Not at all sure 8 9 6 6 11 8 7 6  
   
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding; * indicates less than 0.5%  
                 

 

Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between November 8 to 15, 2010 among 2,151 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words “margin of error” as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

J38848

Q705, 710, 715, 720, 725, 730

The Harris Poll® #147, November 30, 2010

By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is one of the world’s leading custom market research firms, leveraging research, technology, and business acumen to transform relevant insight into actionable foresight. Known widely for the Harris Poll and for pioneering innovative research methodologies, Harris offers expertise in a wide range of industries including healthcare, technology, public affairs, energy, telecommunications, financial services, insurance, media, retail, restaurant, and consumer package goods. Serving clients in over 215 countries and territories through our North American, European, and Asian offices and a network of independent market research firms, Harris specializes in delivering research solutions that help us – and our clients – stay ahead of what’s next. For more information, please visit www.harrisinteractive.com.

Press Contact:  
Corporate Communications  
Harris Interactive  
212-539-9600  
press@harrisinteractive.net  
 

 

SOURCE Harris Interactive

Read more: http://www.sacbee.com/2010/11/30/3220707/some-small-glimmers-of-optimism.html#ixzz16pGpN7Jd 

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Recession rips at US marriages, expands income gap

Hope Yen, Associated Press Writer, On Tuesday September 28, 2010, 6:33 pm

WASHINGTON (AP) — The recession seems to be socking Americans in the heart as well as the wallet: Marriages have hit an all-time low while pleas for food stamps have reached a record high and the gap between rich and poor has grown to its widest ever.

The long recession technically ended in mid-2009, economists say, but U.S. Census data released Tuesday show the painful, lingering effects. The annual survey covers all of last year, when unemployment skyrocketed to 10 percent, and the jobless rate is still a stubbornly high 9.6 percent.

The figures also show that Americans on average have been spending about 36 fewer minutes in the office per week and are stuck in traffic a bit less than they had been. But that is hardly good news, either. The reason is largely that people have lost jobs or are scraping by with part-time work.

“Millions of people are stuck at home because they can’t find a job. Poverty increased in a majority of states, and children have been hit especially hard,” said Mark Mather, associate vice president of the Population Reference Bureau.

The economic “indicators say we’re in recovery, but the impact on families and children will linger on for years,” he said.

Take marriage.

In America, marriages fell to a record low in 2009, with just 52 percent of adults 18 and over saying they were joined in wedlock, compared to 57 percent in 2000.

The never-married included 46.3 percent of young adults 25-34, with sharp increases in single people in cities in the Midwest and Southwest, including Cleveland, Phoenix, Los Angeles and Albuquerque, N.M. It was the first time the share of unmarried young adults exceeded those who were married.

Marriages have been declining for years due to rising divorce, more unmarried couples living together and increased job prospects for women. But sociologists say younger people are also now increasingly choosing to delay marriage as they struggle to find work and resist making long-term commitments.

In dollar terms, the rich are still getting richer, and the poor are falling further behind them.

The income gap between the richest and poorest Americans grew last year to its largest margin ever, a stark divide as Democrats and Republicans spar over whether to extend Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy.

The top-earning 20 percent of Americans — those making more than $100,000 each year — received 49.4 percent of all income generated in the U.S., compared with the 3.4 percent made by the bottom 20 percent of earners, those who fell below the poverty line, according to the new figures. That ratio of 14.5-to-1 was an increase from 13.6 in 2008 and nearly double a low of 7.69 in 1968.

At the top, the wealthiest 5 percent of Americans, who earn more than $180,000, added slightly to their annual incomes last year, the data show. Families at the $50,000 median level slipped lower.

Three states — New York, Connecticut and Texas — and the District of Columbia had the largest gaps between rich and poor. Big gaps were also evident in large cities such as New York, Miami, Los Angeles, Boston and Atlanta, home to both highly paid financial and high-tech jobs as well as clusters of poorer immigrant and minority residents.

Alaska, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Hawaii had the smallest income gaps.

“Income inequality is rising, and if we took into account tax data, it would be even more,” said Timothy Smeeding, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor who specializes in poverty. “More than other countries, we have a very unequal income distribution where compensation goes to the top in a winner-takes-all economy.”

Lower-skilled adults ages 18 to 34 had the largest jumps in poverty last year as employers kept or hired older workers for the dwindling jobs available. The declining economic fortunes have caused many unemployed young Americans to double-up in housing with parents, friends and loved ones, with potential problems for the labor market if they don’t get needed training for future jobs, he said.

Homeownership declined for the third year in a row, to 65.9 percent, after hitting a peak of 67.3 percent in 2006. Residents in crowded housing held steady at 1 percent, the highest since 2004, a sign that people continued to “double up” to save money.

Average commute times edged lower to 25.1 minutes, the lowest since 2006, as fewer people headed to the office in the morning. The share of people who carpooled also declined, from 10.7 percent to 10 percent, while commuters who took public transportation were unchanged at 5 percent.

The number of U.S. households receiving food stamps surged by 2 million last year to 11.7 million, the highest level on record, meaning that 1 in 10 families was receiving the government aid. In all, 46 states and the District of Columbia had increases in food stamps, with the largest jumps in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin.

Other findings:

–The foreign-born population edged higher to 38.5 million, or 12.5 percent, following a dip in the previous year, due mostly to increases in naturalized citizens. The share of U.S. residents speaking a language other than English at home also rose, from 19.7 percent to 20 percent, mostly in California, New Mexico and Texas.

–The poorest poor hit record highs. Twenty-eight states had increases in the share of people below $10,977 in income, half the poverty line for a family of four. The highest shares were in the District of Columbia, Mississippi, Kentucky, Arkansas and South Carolina. Nationally, the poorest poor rose to 6.3 percent.

–Women’s average pay still lags men’s, but the gap is narrowing. Women with full-time jobs made 78.2 percent of men’s pay, up from 77.7 percent in 2008 and about 64 percent in 2000, as men took bigger hits in the recession.

–More older people are working. About 27.1 percent of Americans 60 and over were in the work force. That’s up from 26.7 percent in 2008.

The census figures come weeks before the pivotal Nov. 2 congressional elections, when voters anxious about rising deficits and the slow pace of the economic recovery will decide whether to keep Democrats in control of Congress.

The 2009 tabulations, which are based on pretax income and exclude capital gains, are adjusted for household size where data are available. Prior analyses of after-tax income made by the wealthiest 1 percent compared to middle- and low-income Americans have also pointed to a widening inequality gap, but only reflect U.S. data as of 2007.

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